The answer to Rafizi's riddle on Sunday, May 17 — Will Anwar be ousted from within PKR?
As stated by a well-known news portal yesterday, the new political direction of Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli—which has become a question mark after he was no longer aligned with the Madani government, particularly PKR led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim—will be answered this Sunday.
The announcement by the former PKR Deputy President is certainly eagerly awaited by many, especially among this influential Member of Parliament's supporters and observers.
Moreover, most people already understand that Rafizi usually acts based on careful and well-calculated considerations.
Citing a previous Sin Chew Daily report, Rafizi stated that there were "four no's", meaning that he: (1) will not join any existing political party; (2) will not join the 'third force'; (3) will not form a new party; and (4) will not collaborate with former Health Minister, Encik Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar.
If all else fails, what do you think the decision of Rafizi and his friends in PKR will be?
Permadu Malaysia believes that there is a possibility that Rafizi will reset with his supporters within PKR in the manner of Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin who was fired from Bersatu. The difference is that they are still in PKR.
After that, without disturbing Parliament, they will democratically announce a loss of confidence in Anwar as the party's president, and then announce support for Rafizi as the party's new president.
In terms of the party's constitution, Anwar's position as PKR President may not be affected at all. However, in terms of morale, it will put tremendous pressure, as well as embarrassment, on Anwar. Normally, in such a situation, dignified leaders would resign.
When Anwar no longer holds the position of PKR president, in terms of convention, he becomes disqualified from continuing to serve as the country's highest executive leader due to losing support from his own party.
However, Anwar can still continue as Prime Minister as long as he has the support of the majority of Members of Parliament.
How could Rafizi do this? Many may overlook the fact that Rafizi and his team have many silent supporters among PKR branch leaders and grassroots members who still deeply embody the original spirit of reform that the party fought for.
These silent supporters are believed to be disappointed with the failure to implement reforms even though Pakatan Harapan has been in government for more than three years.
The situation became more distressing when the issue of Tan Sri Azam Baki, the corporate mafia involving the MACC and the Securities Commission arose. Adding to the dissatisfaction, the emergence of Anwar's former aide as an instant millionaire. These issues have still not been answered by the government.
DAP, which previously loudly advocated for integrity, has now become silent, believed to be in a state of total disarray.
Developments show that PKR is a very weak party now. It is not impossible that Rafizi and his friends will take this opportunity to overthrow the president from within their own party.
Meanwhile, the famous news portal, Malaysiakini, has sought views from several academic figures and analysts regarding what is expected from the announcement of a new direction by Rafizi and his colleagues tomorrow, Sunday, 17 May.
According to the news portal, political analysts are of the view that with current developments it is impossible for Rafizi to remain with PKR, and it is almost certain that the Pandan MP will take a different path.
Senior lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Associate Professor Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim, said that knowing Rafizi's character, he did not expect the figure to join an existing major party, whether PN or BN.
This is because, he explained, in the current situation, the former Minister of Economy no longer wants to be a follower, but instead shows that he wants to act as the driving force.
"Now there are only two most reasonable political options for Rafizi, either form a new party; or join an existing small party and lead that party."
"There are a lot of rumors, but we won't be sure until he officially announces it - which is expected on 17 May.
"Whether it is forming a new party or leading an existing small party, it will be the new third force in the 16th GE," he said.
However, the Ilham Centre's chief researcher is of the view that both options are somewhat at risk of affecting PH.
“Because until now, the segment that has reacted to his movement is the same segment as PH supporters. Until now, it has not been clearly seen that the segment that supports Rafizi is a different segment.
“If he is able to 'steal' PH's existing supporters in a significant number, PH will certainly face problems, not to mention the very fierce and marginal competition in several constituencies now,” said Mohd Yusri.
Earlier, Rafizi confirmed that he will make an "extraordinary" announcement regarding his new political direction this Sunday. Also to be announced is the involvement of former PKR Vice President and Setiawangsa MP Encik Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
Their announcement is scheduled to take place at an open event in Petaling Jaya, from 2pm to 5pm.
Interestingly, the announcement is scheduled on the day of the PH Convention being held in Johor. All the top leaders of the ruling party are expected to gather at the program.
It's hard if you don't get a good response
Speaking to reporters after giving his statement at the MACC Headquarters in Putrajaya on Thursday, 14 May, Rafizi said the decision to make a public announcement proved that the matter he was about to bring was of great importance and different from the statements usually issued through social media platforms.
Asked about speculation from some quarters that he would not leave PKR, Rafizi said it was up to each person's opinion.
In fact, he described it as an advantage for politicians like him to ensure that the public and the media continue to wonder about the next steps that will be taken until the day of the announcement.
Rafizi and Nik Nazmi previously resigned from their cabinet positions, as Economy Minister and Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Minister respectively, last year after failing to defend their positions in the PKR elections.
Mohd Yusri said there is a question behind Rafizi's future choice, namely whether the segment that is seen to be supporting him at the moment will translate into votes in the election, or whether they are only supporting him because they are comfortable with what he is saying.
Therefore, said Mohd Yusri, if Rafizi is able to form a strong and convincing wave and momentum, he has the potential to gain support in the form of votes.
“However, if (support) is only lukewarm, it will be difficult for voters to translate it into votes.
“This is because in general, voters’ psychology is that they will only vote for a party that they are confident will win.
“Even if they agree with the idealism of a third force, it is difficult for them to vote if they are not confident that they can win,” he said.
However, Mohd Yusri added that Rafizi’s movement has the potential to have an impact on PH because both groups are still fighting for the same support segment, namely the progressive group.
Affecting grassroots strength
However, he said, the extent of the impact will be measured when Rafizi officially starts moving forward.
Senior Lecturer at Sultan Zainal Abidin University (UniSza), Associate Professor Dr Hussain Yusri Zawawi, meanwhile, believes that Rafizi's announcement of his direction is expected to be a key moment in determining the country's political dynamics.
According to him, Rafizi's position is not just as an individual in the party, but among the main figures in PH who carry the reform narrative and the people's trust in political change.
"The extent to which the announcement affects PH and the leadership of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim depends greatly on the form of the decision that will be announced.
"If (there is) the establishment of a new party, (it) has the potential to cause a split in support within PKR. Rafizi has his own influence, especially among reform supporters and the younger generation.
"If some supporters or party members switch to the new party, PKR will face a reduction in grassroots strength and a weakening of the organizational structure.
"This could affect PKR's ability to move effectively in the upcoming elections," he said.
Elaborating further from the perspective of a political coalition, he said that the move could weaken PH's position as a whole.
He said that in a multi-party political system like Malaysia, a split in a major component would directly affect the stability of the coalition.
"The new party that may be established will compete with PH in the same area, thus splitting the votes of supporters who previously sided with the coalition.
"This could give an advantage to other opponents in the election," he said.
Hussain Yusri added that in today's Malaysian political context, the people are increasingly pragmatic and voters tend to evaluate the effectiveness of the government based on policy outcomes and national stability, rather than solely on the internal dynamics of the party.
At the same time, he reminded that although Rafizi's announcement could spark a wave of political discussion and give a 'shake' to PH's image, it would not necessarily be strong enough to fundamentally challenge Anwar's dominance.
He said Rafizi's announcement of political direction had the potential to deal a blow to perceptions of PH and Anwar if it carried a critical message.
"However, the long-term impact still depends on how the government leadership manages the narrative, the level of internal solidarity within PKR, and the government's ability to maintain the people's confidence in the reform agenda and national stability," he explained.
End©Permadu
| By Fauzi Kadir Chief Editor
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