Rafizi likely the next PM after Anwar

WHY RAFIZI IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO ANWAR TODAY

Yesterday, PKR held protests outside of Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli's office to force him to quit the party.

This is not surprising. Rafizi is currently the biggest threat to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Because of Rafizi, a snap election might be called and if it is called, Rafizi is the reason why PH might lose the snap election. 

Although Anwar has stated that he is not going to call for election in the next one or two months,  the question of when the next election is to be called might no longer be  something that Anwar alone gets to decide.

Anwar can only decide on when the election is to be called if he has a comfortable majority in the parliament.

If the MPs decide that Anwar has lost support of the people, they might decide to withdraw support from Anwar, and force an election to occur, whether Anwar consents to it or not.

The MPs will withdraw their support government if (1) they believe that Anwar no longer commands the support of the people and (2) if they think he will not win the next election.

Anwar has already lost the support of the majority of the people in the country. He has lost it for various reasons, but the final nail in the coffin is going to be the economic crisis that we are facing.

But even without the support of the majority of the people, Anwar might still win the next election, simply because no party is likely to have the support of the majority of the people.

Anwar actually doesn't need the support of the majority of the people to win the next election. He actually just needs enough support to win one third of the parliament seats. As a matter of fact, one third is the number of seats that PH won in the 2022 election.

With one third of the seats, PH would then secure the support of BN, to control 50 percent of the seats in parliament.

Using the 50 percent, it then got the support of other parties, to control a comfortable two thirds  majority in parliament, and thus rule the country.

If  election is called soon, PH will still likely win the seats that it won in the last election, simply because PH's supporters have no other choice.

But if Rafizi starts a new party and contests in the same seat that PH is competing, Rafizi might take half the seats that PKR, or even PH, has.

In many of the urban and mutiracial  constituencies that is PH's stronghold, Rafizi's credibility amongst PH supporters is so much higher than Anwar, that I would go as far as to say that if Rafizi were to contest against Anwar directly in any urban seat in the country, it will be Rafizi that will come out the winner.

In other words, if Rafizi starts his own party,  he will likely deny PH the one third seat it needs to form alliances and rule the country.

If MPs perceive that Anwar will not win the next election, after they perceive that he has lost the confidence of the majority of the people in the country, they will withdraw support for Anwar and force a snap election to be called, and in that snap election, the chances are high that Anwar will lose.

This is why Rafizi is the greatest threat to Anwar and PH today.

To neutralize him, Anwar will first have to force him to leave PKR and PH.

After he is forced to leave, I am also confident that he will be pressured further by other means, to contain the damage that he can cause Anwar and PH.

So watch Rafizi. The more Rafizi is hit, the more it indicates that Anwar and PH is panicking. 


Adapted from the article shared by Therealnehhruism via Facebook yesterday, Friday 10 April 2026.a


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